trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $29 | +$1 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $53 | +$1 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $8 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 18 | $1 | $0 | -21% |
| Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 13? | Apr 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 14 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad | Apr 12 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? | Apr 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 06 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 31 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Did Kanye sell his twitter account? | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $13 | −$3 | -21% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -40% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? | Mar 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.4% |
| all | 27 | -5.8% | -14.7% | 59% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.7% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -33.6% |