Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe404…ba3d crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$825 (+18%) realized +$832 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%29W / 40L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$855
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 41% +8.1%
≤30d 69 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 41% +8.1%
≤90d 69 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 41% +8.1%
all 69 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 41% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 41% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -2.2%
15% -25.6% 33% -11.7%
20% -32.9% 32% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$53 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$832
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses29 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 59¢ 52¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 28¢ 34¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$289 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $313 −$57 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$210 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$120 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $209 +$411 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$94 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $235 +$378 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$417 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$89 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $121 +$157 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$157 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$85 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$46 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$133 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$68 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.73 · official $165.62 · 144 history records