Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe405…c67e sports 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$359,562 (+37%) realized +$350,404 · open +$9,158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%92W / 73L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$5,235per market
Trades / day171.4pace
Fees−$11,776est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$65,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$20,951
other 7% +$40,095
crypto 1% +$4,511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 52% -12.0%
≤30d 165 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 165 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -8.1%
all 165 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 54% -8.1%
10% -19.3% 51% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 45% -24.9%
20% -34.3% 35% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$7,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,989 vs −$4,829 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$65,680
Realized+$350,404
Unrealized+$9,158
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses92 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$11,776
Open positions21
Markets (closed)165 / 186
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$5,235
Trades / day171.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 66¢ 100¢ $12,963 $19,492 +$6,528 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $11,223 $14,589 +$3,366 (+30%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ 100¢ $2,373 $5,973 +$3,600 (+152%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $8,800 $5,321 −$3,480 (-40%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $4,600 $4,650 +$50 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $4,320 $4,360 +$40 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,649 $2,808 +$159 (+6%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 60¢ $2,338 $2,399 +$60 (+3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $1,828 $1,845 +$17 (+1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ 32¢ $1,301 $1,354 +$53 (+4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ 100¢ $535 $863 +$327 (+61%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 63¢ 66¢ $649 $685 +$36 (+6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $544 $652 +$108 (+20%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $320 $328 +$8 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Karmine Corp 61¢ 71¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 0¢ $1,726 $2 −$1,724 (-100%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 52¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,350 +$3,450 +33%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,713 −$2,713 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,680 −$3,680 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10,331 +$10,385 +100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,270 −$1,270 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $752 −$752 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $746 −$746 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,716 −$1,716 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 15 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,600 −$4,972 -89%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 15 $6,308 −$6,308 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,433 −$7,433 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $8,297 −$8,297 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $12,292 −$12,292 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19,230 −$19,230 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15,730 −$15,730 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,802 +$4,999 +86%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $3,412 +$2,792 +82%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,659 +$1,265 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,160 +$3,840 +92%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18,016 +$17,952 +100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $194 +$124 +64%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9,017 −$5,338 -59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14,923 −$14,579 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,069 +$1,983 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20,334 +$11,593 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,200 +$4,800 +150%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2,901 +$2,712 +94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,198 +$5,393 +104%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $961 +$808 +84%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4,214 +$1,274 +30%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$108 +72%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $411 +$503 +122%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,431 +$792 +55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $137 +$188 +137%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $431 +$835 +194%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6,967 +$1,918 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $7,720 −$1,394 -18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,798 +$4,686 +168%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9,537 +$4,402 +46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,053 +$380 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,600 +$5,400 +117%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $84 15m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $45 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $300 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $107 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $43 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $107 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $0 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $64 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $60 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $2 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $2 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $0 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $45 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $2 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $54 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $5 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $2 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $8 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $1 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $2 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $26 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $7 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $0 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $11 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $4 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $2 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $12 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $8 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $8 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $4 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,680.12 · official $65,680.10 (match) · 3500 history records