Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe408…fd80 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,942 (+3%) realized +$1,942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%93W / 61L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$248
14 days−$1,638
30 days+$1,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,823
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -1.5% -10.8% 58% 58% -10.5%
≤30d 132 +5.7% -4.4% 61% 61% -5.8%
≤90d 154 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -6.7%
all 154 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 60% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 60% -15.6%
15% -22.5% 60% -23.8%
20% -30.1% 59% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$399 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses93 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage61d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$228 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $405 +$345 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $296 −$287 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $451 +$299 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $209 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$20 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $176 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$200 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $465 +$285 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$194 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $650 +$650 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$135 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$200 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $285 −$285 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $741 −$725 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$57 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $267 +$233 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$200 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $290 +$210 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $266 +$227 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$291 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $84 +$56 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $470 −$465 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $259 −$255 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$200 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$200 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$42 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $188 −$185 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $465 +$285 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $269 −$263 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $260 +$240 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $465 +$285 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $450 +$300 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $393 −$384 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $249 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $243 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2223 history records