Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe40a…db2b crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%51W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1
world 15% +$9
other 13% −$2
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 21% -9.6%
≤30d 68 -1.8% -11.2% 75% 21% -9.9%
≤90d 68 -1.8% -11.2% 75% 21% -9.9%
all 68 -1.8% -11.2% 75% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 21% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses51 / 17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)68 / 79
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $46 $52 +$7 (+15%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 34¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 26¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -89%
Will Alabama win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$8 -42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $2 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 26h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.08 · official $173.08 (match) · 261 history records