Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe40e…a94d other 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2423 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$463,142 (+550%) realized +$479,069 · open −$15,927
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +266% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +170% what you keep after slip
Net edge+170%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 48L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$906per market
Trades / day2423.4pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$103,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$22,492
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2423 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+230.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +265.8% +230.9% 38% 31% -77.3%
≤30d 78 +265.8% +230.9% 38% 31% -77.3%
≤90d 78 +265.8% +230.9% 38% 31% -77.3%
all 78 +265.8% +230.9% 38% 31% -77.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2423.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +230.9% 31% -77.3%
10% +199.3% 27% -79.5%
15% ← realistic here +170.3% 24% -81.4%
20% +143.8% 23% -83.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +266% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,214) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +241% → late +290% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$2,319 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$103,045
Realized+$479,069
Unrealized−$15,927
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions117
Markets (closed)78 / 93
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$906
Trades / day2423.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 117 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $63,747 $64,187 +$441 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $11,556 $11,754 +$198 (+2%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,380 $1,387 +$7 (+1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,142 $1,152 +$10 (+1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,072 $1,078 +$6 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $353 $1,050 +$697 (+198%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $298 $1,040 +$742 (+249%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? No 95¢ 95¢ $887 $889 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 96¢ 96¢ $668 $669 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $300 $586 +$286 (+96%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? No 97¢ 98¢ $568 $572 +$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $353 $570 +$217 (+62%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $353 $570 +$217 (+62%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $347 $561 +$214 (+62%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $435 $544 +$109 (+25%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $416 $530 +$114 (+28%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $508 $509 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16,528 $501 −$16,028 (-97%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $388 $495 +$107 (+28%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $300 $484 +$184 (+62%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $353 $480 +$127 (+36%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $373 $475 +$102 (+28%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $265 $472 +$208 (+79%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $176 $435 +$259 (+147%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $300 $433 +$133 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $40,182 −$40,182 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 24 $632 −$632 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $153 +$166 +109%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$7 +78544%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Will BNB reach $1000 in January? Jun 24 $267 −$267 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $0 +$410 +1981814%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $341 −$352 -103%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $308 −$294 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $338 −$338 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $0 −$22,406 -509222416%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$294 +1050769%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 24 $1 +$81 +13684%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 24 $830 −$830 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 24 $890 −$890 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $206 −$348 -169%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $0 +$365 +1660164%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 24 $0 −$27 -7341%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $270 −$309 -115%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jun 24 $341 −$341 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will BNB dip to $700 in January? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $57 −$99 -174%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $28,531 −$25,842 -91%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $274 −$318 -116%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $33 +$71 +213%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$302 +1080181%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jun 24 $1,916 −$1,916 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$132 +1215453%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1,350 −$760 -56%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $1,437 −$1,248 -87%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $1,438 −$1,245 -86%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $1,470 −$1,398 -95%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1,275 −$600 -47%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $1,468 −$1,385 -94%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $1,188 −$1,096 -92%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 24 $1,154 −$1,135 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $674 +$209 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 0m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 0m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 3m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 3m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 Mexico? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 4m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 4m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5m
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6m
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 6m
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103,045.35 · official $103,087.58 (match) · 3500 history records