Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe411…d640 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-10%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$54
other 26% −$4
politics 17% −$95
sports 8% −$35
crypto 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤30d 5 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤90d 18 -49.1% -53.9% 28% 28% -25.0%
all 18 -49.1% -53.9% 28% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.9% 28% -25.0%
10% -58.4% 22% -32.2%
15% -62.4% 6% -38.7%
20% -66.1% 6% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage58d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$10 -20%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$33 -79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$38 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $90 −$86 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$1 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $50 +$15 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $200 +$40 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $99 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 36d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 37d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 38d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 38d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records