Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe414…e5d7 crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,435 (-5%) realized −$1,458 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%221W / 32L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$66
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,089
other 10% −$144
sports 3% +$73
politics 1% −$260
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +43.4% +29.8% 64% 27% -11.1%
≤30d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 67% 25% -11.0%
≤90d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 67% 25% -11.0%
all 253 -4.3% -13.4% 87% 5% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -14.2%
10% -21.7% 3% -22.4%
15% -29.3% 2% -29.9%
20% -36.2% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$74 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$1,458
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses221 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage186d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 84¢ 94¢ $200 $223 +$23 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $532 +$52 +10%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$31 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $353 +$164 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $305 −$199 -65%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$42 +414%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $709 −$232 -33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $701 +$27 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $601 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 21 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 19 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 19 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 17 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 17 $100 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 14 $247 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 13 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 11 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 18m
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $584 24m
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 53m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $332 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $517 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 67¢ $353 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $106 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 40¢ $476 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $709 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $728 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $701 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $601 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 151d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $102 152d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 152d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $112 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.62 · official $222.62 (match) · 976 history records