Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe415…a40b crypto 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%69W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$20
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$26
other 26% −$3
sports 3% −$30
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 32 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 47% -12.0%
≤90d 126 -17.6% -25.5% 55% 48% -14.9%
all 126 -17.6% -25.5% 55% 48% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 48% -14.9%
10% -32.6% 37% -23.0%
15% -39.1% 28% -30.4%
20% -45.1% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses69 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage82d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $34 −$5 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$32 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +55%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $10 +$22 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
BNB Up or Down on May 27? May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $5 +$6 +119%
BNB Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Doumbia/Reboul vs Bolelli/Vavassori May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $16 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 21d
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28? SELL Down 98¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 23d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 67¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.50 · official $34.50 (match) · 267 history records