Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe416…d04e
crypto · 72 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$17 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses49 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage140d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% +$15
other 16% +$11
sports 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 68% -12.3%
≤30d 68 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 68% -12.3%
≤90d 68 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 68% -12.3%
all 71 +8.4% -1.9% 69% 69% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 69% -0.9%
10% -11.3% 69% -10.4%
15% -19.9% 61% -19.1%
20% -27.7% 45% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 145 history records