Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe416…7fc0 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,534 (-5%) realized −$1,500 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%145W / 120L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$1,341
14 days−$1,642
30 days−$2,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,235
sports 47% −$829
other 2% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -14.8% -22.9% 57% 38% -18.8%
≤30d 249 -18.8% -26.6% 53% 39% -16.2%
≤90d 265 -15.3% -23.4% 55% 41% -15.2%
all 265 -15.3% -23.4% 55% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 41% -15.2%
10% -30.7% 26% -23.3%
15% -37.4% 19% -30.7%
20% -43.5% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$56 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,500
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses145 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage45d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner DXA Esports 29¢ 10¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$21 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $146 +$27 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $134 −$130 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $254 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $235 −$114 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $193 +$45 +23%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $101 −$26 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $370 +$34 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $154 +$10 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$7 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $136 +$9 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $224 +$43 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $242 −$62 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$15 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$19 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$23 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $339 +$31 +9%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$61 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$96 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$56 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $447 −$145 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $214 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $280 −$270 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $987 −$514 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $288 +$164 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $282 +$6 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $451 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $368 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL DXA Esports 100¢ $91 17m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY DXA Esports 29¢ $51 53m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY DXA Esports 77¢ $70 56m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $173 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $144 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $146 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $134 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $125 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $82 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $29 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $18 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $128 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $88 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $29 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $235 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $238 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $193 38h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL Estar Backs 62¢ $74 38h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY Estar Backs 82¢ $101 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $217 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $184 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $186 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $186 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $163 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.18 · official $16.18 (match) · 765 history records