Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe417…7e1c sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$16 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$31
other 6% −$14
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -11.0%
≤30d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -11.0%
all 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 17% -11.0%
10% -33.0% 17% -19.5%
15% -39.5% 17% -27.3%
20% -45.4% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$20 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 18¢ $38 $55 +$17 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $76 −$4 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$5 -25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 +$94 +222%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $38 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $72 5h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $72 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $15 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 16h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $76 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $23 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 19h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.69 · official $57.81 · 11 history records