Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe419…5839 other 140 markets active 119d ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,771 (+12%) realized +$37,771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%87W / 53L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$2,269per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$24,747
politics 20% +$8,197
tech 16% +$5,962
world 1% −$1,313
crypto 1% −$30
economics 0% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 140 -0.9% -10.3% 62% 39% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 39% +1.3%
10% -18.9% 19% -8.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 14% -17.3%
20% -33.9% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$277 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37,771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses87 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$2,269
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Feb 28 $681 +$169 +25%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $643 −$492 -77%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Feb 28 $500 +$143 +29%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 15 $211 +$41 +20%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jan 15 $1,759 −$3 -0%
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? Jan 15 $163 −$104 -64%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jan 11 $1,684 −$565 -34%
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Jan 11 $194 +$25 +13%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 11 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 11 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 11 $22 +$12 +54%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Jan 08 $130 +$15 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jan 07 $108 −$50 -46%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $110 +$252 +230%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $150 −$71 -47%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jan 05 $1,324 +$110 +8%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 05 $1,596 +$879 +55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $1,877 +$5 +0%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $16,306 +$7,608 +47%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Dec 30 $1,586 −$525 -33%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 30 $190 +$5 +3%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 29 $2,077 +$491 +24%
Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by December 31? Dec 29 $606 +$39 +6%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 29 $169 +$7 +4%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 28 $805 +$85 +11%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Dec 27 $7,973 +$774 +10%
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Dec 27 $2,223 +$287 +13%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 25 $8 +$7 +82%
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31? Dec 25 $488 +$3 +1%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Dec 24 $533 +$24 +4%
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Dec 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Dec 21 $164 +$10 +6%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Dec 20 $77 +$84 +108%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Dec 20 $631 +$125 +20%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 20 $190 −$49 -26%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 19 $2,756 +$419 +15%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Dec 18 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? Dec 17 $10 $0 +3%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 17 $4,834 +$179 +4%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 17 $18,849 +$2,389 +13%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? Dec 17 $3,507 +$209 +6%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 17 $2,513 +$224 +9%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 17 $913 −$267 -29%
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31? Dec 17 $2,891 −$2,595 -90%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 17 $9,432 +$491 +5%
Will Trump sue the BBC? Dec 16 $1,230 −$882 -72%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 16 $3,435 +$156 +4%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Dec 16 $1,732 −$24 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 119d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 13¢ $151 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 34¢ $51 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 42¢ $81 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $187 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $30 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $15 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $50 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 60¢ $10 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 66¢ $2 119d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 67¢ $217 119d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $643 119d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $37 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $63 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 77¢ $80 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 126d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 79¢ $237 128d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 132d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 132d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? BUY Yes 77¢ $138 145d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? BUY Yes 75¢ $355 146d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $6 163d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $22 163d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $474 163d
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records