Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe41c…afab sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,190 (+6%) realized +$1,168 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%105W / 112L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$554
14 days+$1,226
30 days+$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$877
other 18% +$169
weather 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$36
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +8.2% -2.1% 42% 41% -3.5%
≤30d 217 +5.7% -4.4% 48% 44% -4.3%
≤90d 217 +5.7% -4.4% 48% 44% -4.3%
all 217 +5.7% -4.4% 48% 44% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 44% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 44% -13.5%
15% -21.9% 41% -21.8%
20% -29.5% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$37 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized+$1,168
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses105 / 112
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions12
Markets (closed)217 / 229
History coverage19d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 55¢ 54¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $140 $136 −$4 (-3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 51¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-5%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 16¢ $12 $29 +$17 (+136%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $18 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $219 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$32 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $35 −$6 -17%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 16 $65 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 16 $149 −$2 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 16 $207 −$8 -4%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$53 +172%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 15 $114 −$6 -5%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $50 +$12 +23%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $152 +$97 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $76 +$71 +93%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $41 +$33 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$48 +237%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$96 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $155 −$2 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $158 −$5 -3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$35 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $131 +$78 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $182 +$134 +74%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $51 −$38 -74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$55 +108%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 +$92 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $126 +$61 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 −$14 -27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$105 +206%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $76 +$70 +92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$55 +90%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1,153 −$24 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$38 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $343 +$16 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $102 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 47¢ $18 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $26 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 72¢ $24 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $5 4h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $5 4h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $83 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $146 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $51 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 73¢ $22 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 74¢ $12 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 73¢ $219 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $51 7h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $101 7h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $66 19h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $47 20h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 22h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 27h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.46 · official $870.16 (match) · 610 history records