trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 22% | 11% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 15% | 8% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 15% | 8% | -9.7% |
| all | 30 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 40% | 3% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 3% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 43¢ | 44¢ | $35 | $36 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 20 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $122 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 18 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $7 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $65 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jul 23 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Apr 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | Apr 15 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 31 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $15 | −$2 | -13% |