Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe41f…d9dc sports 607 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,964 (-3%) realized −$21,524 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%307W / 297L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$3,695est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,009
7 days−$2,470
14 days−$4,070
30 days−$4,465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$24,744
politics 0% −$57
other 0% −$352
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 47% -27.7%
≤30d 171 -7.8% -16.6% 49% 47% -16.1%
≤90d 392 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 48% -13.6%
all 604 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 49% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 49% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 47% -21.4%
15% -30.7% 44% -29.0%
20% -37.5% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,059) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$682 vs −$788 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21,524
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses307 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3,695
Open positions1
Markets (closed)604 / 607
History coverage190d
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 54¢ 0¢ $441 $0 −$440 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $314 −$314 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $294 +$153 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $679 −$679 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $496 +$236 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $336 +$217 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $489 +$343 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $764 −$764 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $694 −$694 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $509 +$741 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $498 +$197 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $762 −$446 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $504 +$209 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $496 +$243 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $315 −$315 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $746 −$746 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $478 −$478 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $274 −$181 -66%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $506 +$300 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $458 −$458 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$34 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $300 +$365 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $356 +$440 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $468 +$382 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $434 −$434 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $152 +$98 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $171 +$129 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $86 +$80 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$49 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$236 +154%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$170 +95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $172 −$172 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $155 +$57 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $319 −$319 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $869 −$869 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $319 +$255 +80%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $666 −$572 -86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $569 −$569 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,247 −$456 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $447 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $447 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $294 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $314 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $679 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $732 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $553 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $496 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $336 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $832 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 58¢ $489 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $764 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $694 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $694 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $498 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $509 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $305 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 49¢ $317 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $457 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $714 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $739 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $496 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $504 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $315 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 42¢ $478 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $92 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $746 3d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $806 3d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $506 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $458 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 1985 history records