Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe427…8266 crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+3%) realized +$203 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%188W / 68L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$286
14 days+$286
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$124
other 33% −$56
world 11% +$13
crypto 8% +$22
tech 4% +$9
finance 3% +$6
politics 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +26.3% +14.3% 81% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 43 -3.9% -13.0% 63% 37% -10.7%
≤90d 228 +2.8% -7.0% 74% 39% -8.4%
all 256 +2.0% -7.7% 73% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 42% -7.6%
10% -16.6% 25% -16.5%
15% -24.6% 17% -24.5%
20% -32.0% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$30 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses188 / 68
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions11
Markets (closed)256 / 267
History coverage112d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $353 −$350 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $153 +$205 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $404 +$221 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3 +$5 +150%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$302 +197%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$148 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $253 +$144 +57%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $500 +$3 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $147 +$1 +0%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 +$1 +84%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $152 +$136 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $6 +$2 +37%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 21 $21 −$5 -26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 18? May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 18 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $152 +$111 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $304 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $353 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $304 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $153 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $404 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $253 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $503 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $52 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $50 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $305 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $152 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $500 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.65 · official $534.65 (match) · 688 history records