Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe430…6596 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,025 (+41%) realized +$1,029 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$552
30 days+$877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$4
sports 26% +$1,029
crypto 10% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 11 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 27% +86.7%
all 19 +23.8% +12.0% 100% 16% +72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 16% +72.8%
10% +1.3% 16% +56.2%
15% -8.5% 16% +41.1%
20% -17.5% 16% +27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$1,343
Realized+$1,029
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage179d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 30¢ 30¢ $730 $718 −$12 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $629 $625 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $320 +$552 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $188 +$325 +172%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $150 +$152 +101%
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 08 $11 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 08 $18 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? May 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 08 $210 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 05 $7 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? Feb 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round Feb 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 05 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $820 in December? Jan 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $746 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $635 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $320 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $188 22d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $150 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 76d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $9 98d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $11 103d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $17 109d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 116d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 133d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 148d
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 148d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $24 162d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round BUY No 100¢ $19 162d
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 165d
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? BUY No 99¢ $11 165d
Will Meta reach $820 in December? BUY No 100¢ $32 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,342.66 · official $1,342.66 (match) · 40 history records