Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe430…b09f crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$49 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%67W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$88
other 22% +$65
sports 21% −$147
politics 5% −$49
world 4% −$6
weather 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 25% 25% +6.7%
≤30d 16 -18.7% -26.5% 31% 31% -13.8%
≤90d 127 -4.2% -13.4% 53% 38% -9.5%
all 127 -4.2% -13.4% 53% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 38% -9.5%
10% -21.7% 23% -18.1%
15% -29.2% 17% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses67 / 60
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)127 / 132
History coverage110d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $51 +$74 +145%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $50 +$21 +41%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif May 30 $51 +$81 +159%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$11 -36%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $21 −$18 -90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$90 +256%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 24 $190 −$39 -21%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $50 +$22 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $78 −$61 -78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $62 −$17 -27%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $55 +$13 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $71 −$70 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $50 +$15 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $49 +$23 +48%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $48 +$23 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 08 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 08 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 07 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $60 −$9 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $52 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $10 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $1 +$5 +520%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 06 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $3 +$25 +809%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $125 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $51 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $31 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 18¢ $5 14d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 100¢ $71 14d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 70¢ $50 16d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Sentinels 43¢ $51 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 21d
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif BUY Gen.G Esports 38¢ $51 21d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 27d
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 27d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 27d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes $5 27d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL Yes $2 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $125 27d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 27d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 63¢ $69 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 29d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 29d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 29d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 14¢ $15 29d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $72 31d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $50 31d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $60 31d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 83¢ $50 31d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY paiN 50¢ $51 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.40 · official $84.40 (match) · 353 history records