Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe432…a4a4 sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$359 (-17%) realized −$318 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$218
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$378
other 7% −$6
crypto 3% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 41% -30.5%
≤30d 34 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 41% -30.5%
≤90d 71 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 38% -25.4%
all 71 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 38% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 38% -25.4%
10% -34.0% 35% -32.6%
15% -40.4% 30% -39.1%
20% -46.2% 21% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$318
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage62d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 100¢ $25 $64 +$39 (+156%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 44¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +115%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$14 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 +$12 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 +$14 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $26 +$31 +121%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 +$10 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $51 +$20 +39%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $51 +$89 +174%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $51 −$7 -14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Busan: Liam Broady vs Ilya Ivashka Apr 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alycia Parks vs Noma Noha Akugue Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Lilli Tagge Apr 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5 Apr 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $25 +$17 +67%
Canadiens vs. Flyers Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 28m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 28m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $25 29m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $26 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $25 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $25 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 17¢ $26 6h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 17¢ $26 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $25 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $26 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 8h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $26 8h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 71¢ $25 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 9h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 79¢ $25 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $26 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $26 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $26 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.98 · official $143.98 (match) · 187 history records