Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe432…934a sports 490 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,205 (+0%) realized +$1,186 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%400W / 87L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$1,154
14 days+$1,667
30 days−$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,659
other 1% −$503
crypto 0% −$82
world 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 415 -9.5% -18.1% 87% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 444 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 6% -9.2%
all 487 -0.5% -9.9% 82% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 8% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 7% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 6% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$810) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$57 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$2,096
Realized+$1,186
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses400 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions3
Markets (closed)487 / 490
History coverage167d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ 100¢ $1,485 $1,499 +$14 (+1%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 99¢ 100¢ $506 $510 +$4 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 99¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Valorant: TBK Esports vs Abacatudos (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $804 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $172 $0 +0%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $465 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,021 +$79 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,047 +$53 +3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $466 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: unknowns vs Arthrose Peek - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $476 +$24 +5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $498 +$2 +0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $859 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,232 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,480 +$20 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 15 $261 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,968 +$35 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $490 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $179 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $501 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2,015 +$37 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $1,485 46m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 100¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 100¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 100¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 100¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $378 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 99¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner BUY Ground Zero 99¢ $120 2h
Valorant: TBK Esports vs Abacatudos (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A BUY TBK Esports 100¢ $55 8h
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY BakS eSports 100¢ $150 15h
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY BakS eSports 100¢ $350 15h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 100¢ $282 16h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 100¢ $218 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $500 16h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $198 16h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $495 16h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $99 16h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $10 16h
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P BUY Sharper Esport 100¢ $500 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 100¢ $172 22h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 100¢ $500 23h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $105 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $50 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $50 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $197 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $14 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,095.82 · official $2,095.82 (match) · 2107 history records