Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe437…5773 crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-11%) realized −$78 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$27
14 days−$18
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$47
sports 39% −$33
other 4% −$35
politics 1% −$10
weather 1% +$6
economics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.2% -12.5% 29% 29% -23.9%
≤30d 129 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 20% -28.6%
≤90d 134 -2.1% -11.5% 20% 20% -21.1%
all 135 -2.9% -12.1% 20% 20% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 20% -23.1%
10% -20.5% 20% -30.4%
15% -28.2% 20% -37.2%
20% -35.2% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 108
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)135 / 141
History coverage225d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 11¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$16 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$6 -28%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$5 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$5 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $12 −$7 -58%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$22 +425%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $45 −$30 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$13 +252%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$10 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $47 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $12 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 1¢ $1 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $3 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $15.89 · 272 history records