Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe43a…801c world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 28% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 43% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 43% 7% -8.7%
all 31 -6.5% -15.4% 35% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 3% -9.0%
10% -23.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage451d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $29 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $27 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $2 $0 -18%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $13 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $35 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $24 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $28 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $4 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $21 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records