Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe43a…90b8
world · 429 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$116 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$159
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses164 / 212
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions53
Markets (closed)376 / 429
History coverage125d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 53 History 376 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 32¢ 43¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 16¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 $0 +45%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$1 +55%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$2 -83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -44%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3 +$7 +212%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $38 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +134%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -78%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $7 −$4 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$37
other 26% +$108
sports 8% −$155
politics 7% −$35
crypto 6% −$3
tech 4% +$8
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 22m
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 46m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 57m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 35¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $2 2h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 81¢ $2 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 8¢ $1 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 5h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $4 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $7 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $1 12h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $2 12h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 44% -9.9%
≤30d 150 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 34% -10.4%
≤90d 219 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 25% -10.3%
all 376 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 24% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 24% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 18% -19.5%
15% -28.6% 16% -27.3%
20% -35.6% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.15 · official $159.06 (match) · 3500 history records