Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe43d…6a6a crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$373 (+14%) realized +$365 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 65L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$271
14 days+$272
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$228
other 14% +$72
sports 4% −$20
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 46% +1.0%
≤30d 113 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% +0.3%
≤90d 113 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% +0.3%
all 113 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 42% +0.3%
10% -12.8% 39% -9.3%
15% -21.2% 33% -18.1%
20% -28.9% 27% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)113 / 119
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $111 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $213 +$56 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $113 +$84 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $111 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $113 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $113 +$73 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $116 −$99 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $121 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$155 +1457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.14 · official $58.14 (match) · 227 history records