Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe43e…c998 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 45% -9.8%
≤30d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 45% -9.8%
≤90d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 45% -9.8%
all 22 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 45% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 45% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 23% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$39 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $192 −$26 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$24 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $126 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $126 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$30 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$67 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $58 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records