Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe441…9001 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$43 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$29
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$4
world 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -35.6% -41.8% 0% 0% -43.3%
≤30d 4 -30.4% -37.0% 0% 0% -36.0%
≤90d 5 -44.3% -49.6% 0% 0% -43.5%
all 5 -44.3% -49.6% 0% 0% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 0% -43.5%
10% -54.4% 0% -48.9%
15% -58.8% 0% -53.9%
20% -62.9% 0% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$10 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage50d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $52 $69 +$17 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $38 $47 +$8 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $47 −$21 -44%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -45%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $23 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 10d
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 38d
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 38d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.97 · official $161.97 (match) · 27 history records