Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe441…9680 other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%21W / 124L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$13
politics 36% −$13
sports 14% +$49
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 145 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses21 / 124
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage132d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $455 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $164 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 05 $378 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $162 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $402 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $204 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $432 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $401 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $415 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $395 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 8h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 26h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $35 26h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $35 27h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 27h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 45h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 45h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $165 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $165 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $227 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $227 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $204 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $204 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 29d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 29d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $200 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 422 history records