Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe443…3c81 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$42
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$43
other 15% −$8
sports 11% +$3
politics 9% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 66% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 73 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 8% -8.3%
all 77 +0.1% -9.5% 57% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -8.6%
10% -18.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage525d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $71 +$6 +9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $78 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $75 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $63 +$3 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $115 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $107 +$31 +29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $64 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $114 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 +$1 +46%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $16 −$4 -23%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos May 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $78 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $43 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $57 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $14 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $66 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $78 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $71 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.76 · official $77.76 (match) · 351 history records