Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe449…a581 other 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%27W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$6
other 25% −$2
politics 18% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 2% −$3
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 225 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses27 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage174d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? No 93¢ 93¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $84 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $376 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 30 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 28 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $71 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $44 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 24 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $84 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $267 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 13d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $29 26d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $29 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $35 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $35 39d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 82d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 83d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $34 83d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $34 83d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $32 83d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $32 83d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 83d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 84d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $34 84d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $34 84d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 84d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 84d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $28 84d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $16 84d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $12 84d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $33 84d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $33 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $33 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 85d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $29 85d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $29 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $31 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $32 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.21 · official $35.21 (match) · 820 history records