Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe44d…35c3
other · 17 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$114 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$433
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 7 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$114
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+426%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 57¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$72 +416%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$175
sports 32% −$70
crypto 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+190.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +220.8% +190.3% 60% 60% -3.5%
≤30d 10 +220.8% +190.3% 60% 60% -3.5%
≤90d 10 +220.8% +190.3% 60% 60% -3.5%
all 10 +220.8% +190.3% 60% 60% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +190.3% 60% -3.5%
10% +162.5% 60% -12.8%
15% +137.1% 60% -21.2%
20% +113.9% 50% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.00 · official $432.52 (match) · 25 history records