Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe450…a40a sports 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$320 (+1%) realized +$335 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%154W / 86L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$315
7 days+$325
14 days+$216
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$177
other 11% −$83
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 63% -2.0%
≤30d 60 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 65% -9.3%
≤90d 175 -8.7% -17.4% 63% 61% -10.6%
all 240 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 62% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 62% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 52% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 35% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 25% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$176 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$335
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses154 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions2
Markets (closed)240 / 244
History coverage225d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 13¢ $36 $23 −$13 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $313 +$118 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $261 +$48 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $172 +$102 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $192 +$114 +60%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $174 −$172 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $262 +$104 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $209 −$208 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $406 +$39 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$101 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $263 +$143 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $263 +$131 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 23 $263 +$203 +77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 −$92 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $57 +$37 +64%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $348 −$345 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $286 +$119 +41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $193 +$94 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $343 −$340 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $262 +$77 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $263 +$201 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $54 +$40 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $535 −$530 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $182 +$61 +33%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $481 +$200 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $264 +$218 +83%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $82 −$81 -99%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $355 −$350 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $355 −$350 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $354 −$58 -16%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $177 +$115 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $268 −$4 -2%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $263 +$177 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $263 +$156 +60%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $562 +$163 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $433 +$125 +29%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $465 +$149 +32%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 05 $179 +$122 +68%
Paris Basketball vs. Cholet Jun 05 $302 +$64 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $263 +$143 +55%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 03 $460 +$234 +51%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $257 −$254 -99%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 02 $295 −$294 -100%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 02 $205 +$91 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $31 +$9 +30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $25 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $172 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 72¢ $15 14h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 72¢ $252 14h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 72¢ $45 15h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $261 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $174 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $192 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $209 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $262 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $35 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $406 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 62¢ $172 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $263 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 46¢ $20 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 56¢ $20 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $263 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi SELL Katarzyna Kawa 100¢ $466 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi BUY Katarzyna Kawa 56¢ $263 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $93 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $93 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $57 6d
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $348 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $405 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $286 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $146 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.30 · official $191.30 (match) · 509 history records