trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 38¢ | 32¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-14%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi | Frances Tiafoe | 46¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 54¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Pistons | 64¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 40¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Spread: Colombia (-1.5) | Jordan | 50¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Pistons | 62¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Knicks | 54¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $8 | −$8 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$6 | +109% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$3 | +42% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $8 | +$6 | +79% |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $3 | −$2 | -71% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $5 | +$4 | +82% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Spread: Colombia (-1.5) | Jun 07 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 07 | $5 | +$3 | +50% |
| Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? | Jun 06 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 06 | $8 | +$7 | +93% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 06 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? | Jun 05 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? | Jun 05 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 04 | $5 | +$5 | +108% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $8 | +$11 | +139% |
| Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $5 | −$3 | -52% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $5 | +$2 | +48% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi | Jun 01 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? | Jun 01 | $5 | −$3 | -63% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 31 | $5 | +$10 | +187% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $6 | +$4 | +64% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $6 | +$4 | +67% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $18 | +$5 | +26% |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | May 24 | $2 | +$1 | +73% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 24 | $6 | +$8 | +123% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 22 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $5 | +$3 | +52% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $5 | −$4 | -82% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | May 21 | $5 | +$2 | +34% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $6 | −$1 | -18% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $8 | +$8 | +94% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 16 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 16 | $5 | +$8 | +152% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 15 | $2 | +$1 | +58% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 13 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 13 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -17.6% | -25.4% | 44% | 44% | -24.2% |
| ≤30d | 38 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 53% | 53% | -2.2% |
| ≤90d | 40 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 52% | 52% | -4.3% |
| all | 40 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 52% | 52% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 52% | -4.3% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 50% | -13.5% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 45% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 38% | -29.5% |