Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe457…5ab3
other · 652 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$645 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$790 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$129
Realized−$790
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses55 / 577
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)632 / 652
History coverage34d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day100.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 7 History 632 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$471
14 days−$741
30 days−$789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 66¢ 63¢ $99 $94 −$4 (-5%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 50¢ 45¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? No 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect Jun 14 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 14 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $173 −$2 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 14 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 14 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next el Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -13%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -52%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 14 $17 $0 -3%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $28 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$418
politics 20% −$182
world 17% −$62
tech 8% −$58
sports 6% −$30
finance 6% −$35
crypto 1% −$5
economics 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 17¢ $2 6m
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 17¢ $2 8m
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 34¢ $7 13m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 55¢ $21 21m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 22m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $10 22m
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 27m
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 28m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $24 28m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $24 28m
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election SELL Yes 48¢ $11 31m
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $4 32m
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect SELL No 72¢ $32 32m
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY Yes 48¢ $12 32m
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect SELL No 73¢ $3 32m
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $4 33m
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect BUY No 75¢ $38 33m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 46m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 46m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 46m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 48m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 49m
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 49m
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 50m
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 82¢ $1 51m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 -8.6% -17.3% 1% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 631 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 632 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -14.3%
all 632 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover100.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 0% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -22.5%
15% -32.9% 0% -30.0%
20% -39.4% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.85 · official $128.82 (match) · 3493 history records