Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe458…1bc7 world 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 23% $0
sports 13% −$10
politics 12% +$1
economics 9% −$1
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 35 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 49 +5.9% -4.2% 31% 2% -9.6%
all 52 +3.5% -6.3% 31% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 2% -9.9%
10% -15.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -23.5% 2% -26.4%
20% -31.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage490d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $86 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $42 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $52 −$3 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $254 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $119 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 10m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 10m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $44 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $27 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $8 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $14 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $18 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records