Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe459…0e18 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$408 (+42%) realized +$411 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$383
other 12% +$7
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 40% +35.4%
≤30d 10 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 40% +35.4%
≤90d 10 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 40% +35.4%
all 10 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 40% +35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 40% +35.4%
10% +1.9% 30% +22.5%
15% -8.0% 30% +10.6%
20% -17.0% 30% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$57 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$411
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA W Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Scotland vs Brazi Jun 25 $72 +$220 +304%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 24 $103 +$171 +167%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Jun 24 $103 +$254 +247%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $114 +$7 +6%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 23 $103 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.79 · official $186.81 (match) · 21 history records