Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe459…7cb2 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,450 (+19%) realized +$1,314 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,953
7 days+$1,468
14 days+$1,456
30 days+$1,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,979
other 5% −$287
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +22.4% +10.7% 36% 36% +8.8%
≤30d 39 +19.0% +7.7% 36% 36% +8.1%
≤90d 39 +19.0% +7.7% 36% 36% +8.1%
all 39 +19.0% +7.7% 36% 36% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 36% +8.1%
10% -2.6% 36% -2.3%
15% -12.0% 33% -11.7%
20% -20.6% 28% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$175 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$1,314
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage7d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $86 $222 +$136 (+157%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$66 +66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $275 +$425 +154%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $244 −$240 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $179 +$381 +213%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $244 −$238 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$95 +31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $214 −$209 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $192 −$190 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 −$49 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $410 +$2,166 +528%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $514 −$360 -70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $315 −$310 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $244 −$240 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $266 −$260 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $205 +$665 +325%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $108 +$670 +621%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $284 −$280 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $183 −$180 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $143 −$142 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $119 +$175 +147%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $120 +$471 +392%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $296 +$111 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$47 -46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $206 −$204 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $103 +$139 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$40 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $168 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $48 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $65 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $30 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $49 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $13 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $44 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $244 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $52 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $108 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $118 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $400 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $61 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $102 29h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $308 33h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.89 · official $221.89 (match) · 107 history records