Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe45b…f06b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$3
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 9 -3.5% -12.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage62d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $32 $0 -1%
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Apr 27 $1 $0 -12%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Apr 27 $1 $0 -19%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $41 19d
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 26d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 37d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 38d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 38d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 47d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2,574 55d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2,577 55d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising SELL UCAM Esports Club 75¢ $1 55d
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - SELL Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition 69¢ $1 55d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising BUY UCAM Esports Club 85¢ $1 55d
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition 84¢ $1 55d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $45 55d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $46 61d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 62d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records