Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe45e…5981 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$851 (-6%) realized −$996 · open +$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%27W / 59L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$667
7 days+$667
14 days+$667
30 days+$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$2,478
other 21% +$807
world 13% +$938
sports 11% −$192
politics 0% −$22
finance 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 54% +12.6%
≤30d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 54% +12.6%
≤90d 86 -16.9% -24.8% 31% 31% -16.7%
all 86 -16.9% -24.8% 31% 31% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -16.7%
10% -32.0% 27% -24.7%
15% -38.6% 20% -32.0%
20% -44.6% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$86 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,410
Realized−$996
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage68d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $1,266 $1,410 +$145 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $726 +$562 +77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $200 +$69 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $262 +$195 +74%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $148 +$114 +77%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $272 −$124 -46%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $286 −$14 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $200 +$86 +43%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $296 −$296 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$93 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $71 +$49 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10AM ET Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Apr 24 $241 −$6 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 22 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 22 $285 −$54 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 22 $697 −$662 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Apr 22 $199 +$162 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10AM ET Apr 22 $199 +$47 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8AM ET Apr 22 $423 +$237 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $174 −$30 -17%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$4 -38%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $199 −$175 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7AM ET Apr 22 $552 +$176 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 22 $99 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$22 -73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $651 +$946 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 21 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 21 $333 −$333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET Apr 21 $49 +$382 +773%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $108 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7AM ET Apr 21 $96 −$23 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $199 −$199 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $281 −$111 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $139 −$82 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8AM ET Apr 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 21 $50 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 21 $149 +$106 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $214 +$128 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,287 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,288 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $726 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $262 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $148 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $148 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $272 15h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $272 15h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $286 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $200 29h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $296 34h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $296 34h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $71 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $128 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $100 61d
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $235 61d
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 63d
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 63d
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $138 63d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $107 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $35 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $467 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,410.40 · official $1,410.40 (match) · 293 history records