Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E4 0xe45f…5de6 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$652 (+22%) realized +$650 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$107per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$50

7 days+$220

14 days+$710

30 days+$612

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+30.7%	+18.3%	62%	62%	+3.8%
≤30d	21	+31.3%	+18.8%	57%	57%	+16.3%
≤90d	21	+31.3%	+18.8%	57%	57%	+16.3%
all	21	+31.3%	+18.8%	57%	57%	+16.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.8%	57%	+16.3%
10%	+7.4%	57%	+5.2%
15%	-3.0%	57%	-5.0%
20%	-12.5%	52%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$116 vs −$87 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$829

Realized+$650

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions7

Markets (closed)21 / 28

History coverage16d

Avg bet$107

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	39¢	38¢	$200	$195	−$5 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	55¢	60¢	$153	$166	+$13 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$163	$161	−$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	55¢	55¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	Jun 26	$107	−$101	-95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$95	+93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$212	+$108	+51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$102	+$148	+146%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$126	+124%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$10	+$30	+291%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$203	+$148	+73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$107	+105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$71	+70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$102	+$398	+388%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$40	−$20	-50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 10	$100	−$98	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	SELL Yes	0¢	$6	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$165	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	36h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	55¢	$155	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$111	7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	55¢	$10	8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	9d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$107	9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	9¢	$20	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.51 · official $828.51 (match) · 47 history records