Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe465…46f1 other 22 markets active 7h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-12%) realized −$13 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$12
sports 14% −$10
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.0% -33.0% 50% 33% -31.1%
≤30d 12 -26.0% -33.0% 50% 33% -31.1%
≤90d 12 -26.0% -33.0% 50% 33% -31.1%
all 12 -26.0% -33.0% 50% 33% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 33% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 33% -37.7%
15% -45.3% 17% -43.7%
20% -50.7% 17% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)12 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 62¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $3 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $5 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $3 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $3 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $3 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $2 38h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.17 · official $55.06 (match) · 36 history records