Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe467…b33f crypto 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$845 (-22%) realized −$839 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$443
14 days−$221
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$55
sports 29% −$310
crypto 13% −$196
politics 4% −$42
world 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -46.5% -51.6% 17% 17% -54.3%
≤30d 39 -17.1% -25.0% 23% 23% -29.7%
≤90d 175 -26.0% -33.1% 35% 26% -24.0%
all 175 -26.0% -33.1% 35% 26% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 26% -24.0%
10% -39.5% 23% -31.3%
15% -45.3% 18% -37.9%
20% -50.7% 15% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$839
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 113
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage75d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $141 +$170 +120%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $42 −$32 -76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $72 −$14 -19%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $346 −$346 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$14 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 +$41 +106%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 −$20 -58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $372 +$127 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $31 +$122 +399%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $252 −$246 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 −$2 -20%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $10 −$1 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $82 −$78 -95%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $203 +$246 +121%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? May 22 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 18 $322 −$60 -19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $51 −$12 -24%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership May 16 $151 −$41 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $311 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $141 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 34h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $33 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $199 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $20 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $112 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.19 · official $6.19 (match) · 537 history records