Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe467…38e5 world 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$4
other 8% +$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 46 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $132 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Dec 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $9 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Mar 19 $5 −$3 -57%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 5m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 5m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $48 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $42 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $49 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $35 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $20 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records