trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $47 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $127 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 20 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 23? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 12% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 12% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 12% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 15 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 33% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.1% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -23.2% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -30.7% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -37.5% | 0% | -33.8% |