Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe46c…e93a crypto 1291 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,647 (-5%) realized −$22,647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%1011W / 280L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$807
7 days−$12,455
14 days−$12,523
30 days−$11,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25,617
other 0% −$375
sports 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -38.7% -44.6% 46% 26% -41.3%
≤30d 216 -20.3% -27.8% 63% 31% -26.8%
≤90d 927 -5.2% -14.2% 78% 39% -12.7%
all 1291 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 41% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 41% -14.7%
10% -21.0% 18% -22.9%
15% -28.6% 10% -30.3%
20% -35.6% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$269 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22,647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1011 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1291 / 1291
History coverage138d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1291 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $364 +$30 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $353 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $355 +$76 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $359 +$196 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $351 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $356 +$99 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $307 +$120 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$61 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $312 +$348 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $356 −$313 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $354 +$69 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $523 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $302 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $357 +$125 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $408 +$146 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $215 +$245 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $305 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $813 −$19 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $704 −$201 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $633 −$51 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $431 +$100 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $430 +$90 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $402 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $353 +$46 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $352 +$32 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $302 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $324 +$64 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $695 −$117 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $383 +$26 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $666 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $361 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $632 −$128 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $403 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $382 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $354 +$71 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $285 +$96 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $281 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $152 −$143 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $394 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $364 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $377 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $353 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $355 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $359 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $351 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $356 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $427 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $307 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $304 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $659 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $312 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $42 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $356 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $354 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $71 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $352 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $302 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $357 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $408 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $215 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $314 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3025 history records