Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe46d…702c world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 12% +$4
politics 7% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
culture 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.4% -8.2% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +19.9% +8.5% 50% 10% -8.7%
all 27 +7.7% -2.6% 48% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 11% -8.3%
10% -11.9% 11% -17.1%
15% -20.4% 7% -25.1%
20% -28.2% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage467d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $70 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $64 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $14 −$1 -8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$5 +48%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 21 $12 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $170 in April? Apr 17 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 03 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 21 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $45 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $39 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $36 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $43 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $1 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $43 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $13 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $5 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $6 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $15 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $9 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records