Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe46e…c07d sports 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$563 (+16%) realized +$564 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 104L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$43
14 days−$33
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$301
world 35% +$855
other 14% −$352
economics 6% −$215
politics 1% −$20
culture 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 20% 20% -36.0%
≤30d 26 +20.8% +9.3% 35% 35% -8.8%
≤90d 64 +11.0% +0.4% 30% 30% -11.3%
all 135 -4.2% -13.3% 23% 23% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 23% +3.2%
10% -21.6% 22% -6.7%
15% -29.2% 21% -15.7%
20% -36.1% 19% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$22 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$564
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 104
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage208d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 +$74 +250%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$46 +473%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $73 −$69 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$31 +114%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$44 +162%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$3 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $49 +$41 +82%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Finland end in a draw? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne vs. Nice end in a draw? May 26 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$28 +291%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $10 +$60 +596%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $37 +$16 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 03 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 −$8 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 02 $15 +$64 +415%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Apr 26 $10 +$34 +344%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 26 $30 −$29 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 39h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $31 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 8d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $10 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $10 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $18 8d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $27 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 26¢ $20 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $71 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $7 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 40¢ $47 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 11d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 12d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 12d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 12d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 15d
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.30 · official $52.30 (match) · 287 history records