Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe471…34c0 sports 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,107 (-7%) realized −$3,621 · open −$486
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%97W / 117L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$633est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days−$2,578
14 days−$2,888
30 days−$3,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,879
other 24% −$1,195
world 1% −$542
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -36.2% -42.3% 34% 34% -27.0%
≤30d 155 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 42% -16.2%
≤90d 214 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% -16.0%
all 214 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 45% -16.0%
10% -24.2% 43% -24.0%
15% -31.6% 41% -31.3%
20% -38.3% 33% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$215 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,567
Realized−$3,621
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses97 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$633
Open positions3
Markets (closed)214 / 220
History coverage43d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1,339 $847 −$492 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 78¢ $491 $634 +$143 (+29%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 22¢ $222 $85 −$137 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $304 −$79 -26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $77 −$75 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $294 +$78 +26%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $233 −$230 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$98 +64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $202 +$131 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +64%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $504 +$340 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $384 +$58 +15%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $427 +$65 +15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $272 −$269 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $203 +$170 +84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 −$297 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $492 −$488 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $304 −$117 -38%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$151 +74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $203 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $224 +$192 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $205 −$106 -52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $404 +$201 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 −$505 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 −$71 -73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $607 +$392 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $606 +$303 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $549 −$542 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $797 −$216 -27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$301 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $208 +$95 +46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $225 29m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 39¢ $226 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $92 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 51¢ $304 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $405 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 28¢ $77 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 66¢ $372 5h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 51¢ $294 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $233 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $304 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $24 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 24h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 52¢ $101 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $333 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $202 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 27h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $152 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 35h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $304 37h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $21 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $302 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $302 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $203 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,566.74 · official $1,566.74 (match) · 402 history records