Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe472…5b86 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 38% +$1
politics 8% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 6% -9.8%
all 54 +2.0% -7.8% 44% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage475d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 69¢ 70¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 +$2 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Kristaps Porzingis Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.30 on April 4? Apr 03 $17 $0 +2%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $20 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $11 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $33 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $25 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $15 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $24 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.68 · official $37.69 (match) · 171 history records