Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe474…1508 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$39,384 (-12%) realized −$38,036 · open −$1,348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,085per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,984
7 days−$56,581
14 days−$56,497
30 days−$56,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$48,594
other 29% +$4,767
crypto 2% −$2,089
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 17% -33.1%
≤30d 8 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 38% -33.0%
≤90d 32 -24.9% -32.1% 44% 34% -22.9%
all 77 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 38% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 38% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 27% -30.0%
15% -29.3% 19% -36.7%
20% -36.3% 12% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$520) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$405 vs −$1,891 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$7,448
Realized−$38,036
Unrealized−$1,348
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage161d
Avg bet$4,085
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 83¢ 70¢ $8,796 $7,448 −$1,348 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $18,832 −$9,987 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $120,054 −$18,501 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15,000 −$791 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $63,056 −$27,305 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $476 +$83 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $73 −$10 -14%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? May 05 $11,044 −$754 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 04 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 04 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 04 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 04 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 04 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 03 $4,540 −$184 -4%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $30,309 +$7,619 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $1,000 −$616 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 03 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 03 $18 +$3 +15%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $21,649 +$9,270 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Mar 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 27 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 01 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 01 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 01 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 01 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 01 $520 +$14 +3%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Mar 01 $1,000 +$140 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 28 $200 +$43 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 28 $284 +$96 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 28 $184 +$65 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 28 $800 +$190 +24%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $7,908 −$901 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 27 $500 −$473 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 26 $2 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 26 $200 +$153 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 26 $40 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 85¢ $2,726 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,392 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 34¢ $641 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 86¢ $1,186 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 21¢ $526 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,037 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 82¢ $4,942 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,860 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $3,388 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $17,068 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,764 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,764 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,700 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1,763 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $14,240 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $14,209 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $15,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6,850 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $8,180 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $21,450 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10,392 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,478 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8,851 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,000 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,000 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,000 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,448.32 · official $7,448.32 (match) · 290 history records